Reflections from a Year at Pattern: On People, Partnership, and Separating the Good from the Great

As I wrap up my first full calendar year at Pattern, I’ve been reflecting on what has been the most rewarding period of my career. When I joined last fall, I had a clear thesis about how the emerging manager ecosystem was evolving and where Pattern could play a differentiated role. One year, hundreds of GP meetings, and countless reference calls later, my conviction is stronger than ever, both in the opportunity ahead and in the responsibility that comes with being a true partner to the next generation of venture firms.

Below are six of my biggest reflections from year one at Pattern.

1. Separating the “Good” from the “Great” Is the Hardest Part of the Job

This past year, I personally met with more than 300 unique emerging venture firms. Across the Pattern partnership, that number is over 500 unique managers. Roughly 80 percent were relatively easy passes. These were all impressive in their own right, often with strong operating or investing backgrounds, but without clear differentiation and with no obvious reason why they would win. As I have said before, being smart and having good experience is not an edge in this business; it’s table stakes.

The remaining 20 percent looked reasonably compelling at first glance: strong pipelines, tier-1 co-investors, and early signs of real edge. It is pretty easy to narrow the full set down to this initial 20 percent, but exponentially harder to distill this group into the 1–2 percent of managers we ultimately back each year. In 2025, we committed to six new managers.

What has become increasingly clear is that the differentiation rarely shows up in the deck or the data room. It shows up in the person: in the consistency of their story, the arc of their life, the adversity they have overcome, the way they treat founders in both good and bad moments, and what peers say when they believe no one is listening. Reference calls and vibe checks matter more than anything else in the emerging manager world because, at this stage, you are not underwriting a firm. You are underwriting a person and their vision.

2. References Only Matter If You Do Them Correctly

In the early days of my career, I misunderstood the role of reference calls. Without a deep network of founders or GPs, I leaned heavily on LP-to-LP calls to triangulate conviction. Looking back, that approach can be dangerously misleading. LPs, especially those trying to be helpful or maintain optionality, often provide a very filtered, softened version of reality.

At Pattern, the vast majority of our references today are off-list: founders, co-investors, former colleagues, board members, and others with real, firsthand insight. We typically conduct 20 to 30 formal references on each manager we back. While we may do one or two LP references to understand how GPs have behaved throughout prior funds, our underwriting is overwhelmingly grounded in primary sources and independent thinking. As one GP we committed to told us, “I didn’t know what decision you’d ultimately make, but I knew it would be the right one because you left no stone unturned.”

In venture, few people are incentivized to say something negative about someone else. It is a small world, and positive-sounding ambiguity is the safest default. The only reliable way to get to the truth is through people with whom you have built deep social capital—relationships where trust and the expectation of honesty outweigh the risk of candor. These relationships take years to develop, which is why it is so difficult for newer LPs to truly see the full picture.

3. The “Great Washout” Has Taken Longer to Play Out

After the 2022 venture reset, many predicted a quick and dramatic shakeout in the emerging manager universe. At first glance, recent data suggests a sharp slowdown in new fund announcements. According to the Q3 2025 PitchBook and NVCA report, 2025 is on pace for the fewest number of emerging funds closed in a decade. But that data only reflects funds that have formally announced closings, not those actively raising or still in process.

While a thinning of the herd could be healthy for the overall ecosystem, context matters.

In 2021 and 2022, there were 952 and 985 emerging funds closed and announced, respectively. Fundraising cycles during that period were compressed to 12 to 18 months, compared to a historical norm of two to three years, which artificially inflated the number of annual fundraises.

From 2016 through 2020, the average annual number of emerging funds raised was 517. In 2024, the most recent full year of data, 414 emerging funds were announced, roughly 80 percent of the pre-2021 average. On the surface, that is a 20 percent decline. But funds now take far longer to complete their fundraises. The average time to final close has increased from 9.7 months in 2022 to 15.6 months in 2025, a 60 percent increase. And for just emerging funds, the average is over 18 months. Announcements are simply being spread across longer cycles.

While some firms have wound down, and the data for 2025 does point to a meaningful decline in emerging manager fundraises, the reality is that there are still a significant number of venture funds actively fundraising today, certainly more than the 500 plus unique firms Pattern met with last year. The jury is still out on how many will be able to successfully raise their next fund versus becoming zombie firms. But one thing is for sure: the ecosystem still feels crowded.

Why? Two main reasons:

1. It has never been easier to start a fund.
   Back-office and administrative functions can now be outsourced cheaply, dramatically lowering the barrier to launching a vehicle. While lower friction is beneficial, it also means the quality threshold has dropped in ways that are not always healthy for LPs.

2. AI has created a fear-of-missing-out moment.
   Family offices, RIAs, and other new LP entrants are deploying into venture with enthusiasm that is primarily driven by FOMO, often without the pattern recognition needed to distinguish durable edge from proximity to hype. This influx of capital has enabled more emerging firms, across the quality spectrum, to raise money. As cycles repeat, some of this capital will be burned, and many of these new entrants will ultimately rethink their strategies.

4. Fundraising Is Much Harder Than It Looks

Many allocators have never had to raise capital themselves. Endowments, pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices are perpetual pools by design. Until you have had to raise a fund in a tough environment, it is impossible to understand the physical, emotional, and logistical toll it takes on GPs.

Having successfully raised our own Fund I in one of the most challenging LP markets in recent memory, I have a new level of empathy for emerging GPs. You get used to hearing “no.” You see great LP behavior, but you also see the worst of it: ghosting after verbal commitments, opaque processes, or being used only for introductions. It is frustrating, but it has reinforced how important it is for us to treat GPs with dignity and respect. Transparency, responsiveness, clarity, and timely decisions go a long way.

It has also made us acutely aware of how costly fundraising distractions are for GPs. The best GPs want to spend 95 percent of their time finding great companies, not chasing capital. We prefer backing GPs who can raise efficiently and get back to investing quickly. And when we find exceptional GPs who are not yet exceptional fundraisers, we do everything we can to accelerate their processes so they can return to their core work as quickly as possible.

5. Solo GPs Need Strong LP Partnerships

Most of the managers we back are solo GPs, and one theme is consistent: running a fund alone is an emotionally heavy job.

Great LP partnerships matter disproportionately in this model. Too many LPs operate with an implicit “I give you capital, so you work for me” mindset. But when LPs instead think about how they can actively support the GPs they have chosen, the entire ecosystem becomes stronger.

Some of my most rewarding moments this year were helping GPs navigate complex challenges, serving as thought partners during the messy middle of their fundraises, or introducing them to LPs who ultimately invested. These moments are not quantified in quarterly reports, but to a solo GP, they can be transformational.

LPs need to stop treating GPs like employees, and GPs need to stop treating LPs like bosses; instead, both sides need to start viewing each other as true partners.

6. There Has Never Been a More Exciting Time to Do This Job

Emerging managers are often the first to spot new talent pools, new technologies, and new cultural waves. Some of the fastest-growing companies today, companies like Mercor and Cursor, were founded by young, unconstrained, deeply technical builders. Their ecosystems are no longer limited to YC or the Thiel Fellowship but now include programs like Prod, Neo, Z Fellows, and the hundreds of hacker houses scattered across San Francisco and other innovation hubs.

It is often not the legacy incumbent firms that see these founders at their earliest stages, but the best and most nimble emerging managers who can stay closest to these ever-changing talent pools. Being able to empower these GPs, put them into business, be a day-one partner, and fund innovation at the frontier is an extraordinary privilege.

The recent AI platform shift has amplified both the noise and the opportunity. There is more capital chasing early-stage innovation than ever, but there are also more chances to back something truly special. When you find a manager with real edge, someone who sees the world differently and can prove it, it is energizing.

Final Thoughts

A year into my time at Pattern, I feel more confident than ever that the emerging manager ecosystem is entering a defining period. The market may feel crowded, and the signal-to-noise ratio low, but real opportunity will continue to accrue to those willing to invest the time, curiosity, and relationships required to uncover it.

This past year has also reminded me just how much this business ultimately comes down to people. For LPs, it takes discipline and process, but it also takes judgment, empathy, and the willingness to believe in someone before everyone else does. And for GPs, it requires an obsession with craft, a commitment to community, and a sense of character that shows up not only in the good times, but especially in the difficult times.

Working with the Pattern team and our partners, both GPs and LPs, has only reinforced how grateful I am to get to do this work. And if year one is any indication, the opportunity ahead is much larger than even we imagined.